Gold prices flat, Fed's rate hike outlook weighs

Gold prices flat, Fed's rate hike outlook weighs
Gold prices were unchanged near a more than two-week low early on Wednesday, as the dollar held recent highs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell vowed to prevent the economy from overheating while sticking with gradual rate rises. 

Fundamentals 
Spot gold was flat at $1,317.81 an ounce at 0116 GMT. Prices fell 1.1 per cent and had touched an over two-week session low of $1,313.26 in the previous session. 
US gold futures were up 0.1 per cent at $1,319 per ounce. 

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was steady at 90.354. 
The dollar held near an over two-week high hit in the last session, while Asian shares faltered and bonds were sold off, after Powell's upbeat views on the economy bolstered bets on further Fed interest rate hikes this year. 

The Fed is expected to approve its first rate increase of 2018 at its next policy meeting in March,when it will also provide fresh economic projections and Powell will hold his first news conference. 

The European Central Bank could end bond purchases this year while an interest rate hike in 2019 is not unrealistic if the euro zone's economic upswing continues, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Tuesday. 

China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong surged 65.2 per cent in January from the previous month, data showed on Tuesday. 

Gold prices could break above $1,400 an ounce for the first time since 2013 this year as an uncertain outlook for stocks, bonds and currencies tempts investors to use the precious metal as a safe haven, according to a Reuters survey of analysts 

VINVESTMENT OF INDIA

AVINASH LOKHANDE

MOBILE 9229462212

Crude Touch 4000,4100 & 4200 In MCX

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices are struggling to build higher after rising to a 2.5-year high, with negative RSI divergence now warning a turn lower may be ahead. A drop back below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 59.83 exposes the 14.6% expansionat 58.30 anew. Alternatively, a daily close above the 38.2% Fib at 62.31 targets the 50% expansion at 64.32.

 

Avinash Lokhande

www.vinvestmentofindia.com

 

GOLD TECHNICAL (Avinash Lokhande)

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices have stalled a bit after touching a four-month high last week. Negative RSI divergence warns that the pause may translate into a larger reversal lower as upside momentum fizzles. A reversal back belowthe 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1312.90 opens the door for another challenge of the 38.2% level at 1294.91. Alternatively, a breach of the 61.8% Fibat 1330.89 targets the 1353.15-57.50 area (76.4% Fib, September 8 high)











Avinash Lokhande
Vinvestment of India
www.Vinvestmentofindia.com

Silver, PGMs

• In the other precious metals, the spot silver price dipped $0.047 to $16.895-16.940 per oz. Platinum rose $3 to $931-936 per oz and palladium gained $6 to $919-924 per oz.
• On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was recently at 277.4 yuan ($42.05) per gram, and the December silver was at 3,859 yuan per kg.

Currency moves and data releases

• The dollar index was up 0.11% at 92.25 as of 03:58 BST.
• In other commodities, the Brent crude oil spot price rose 0.02% to $56.77 per barrel while the Texas light sweet crude oil spot price was down 0.18% to $50.54
• In equities, the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.36% to 3,340.57.
• In data on Friday, US flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, above the forecast of 52.9. Flash services PMI stood at 55.1, below the economic consensus of 55.8.
• In EU data, flash manufacturing PMI was recorded higher at 58.3 from 57.4 last month while flash services PMI was also higher at 55.6 from 54.7.
• The economic agenda is light today with German Ifo business climate, the UK’s Financial Policy Committee statement and China’s CB leading index.
• In addition, FOMC members William Dudley, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari as well as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi are speaking.
  

Silver 

White Metal Reverses Its Gains in the Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at USD16.28 per ounce, extending its previous session gains.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.22, with the silver trading 0.37% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 16.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.01. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.45.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Vinvestment of india
Avinash Lokhande
Mobile 92294622212

Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015,

We've had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. "Wait a minute", I hear you say, "prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?". Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental. When prices rose out of the late 2015 low, which was the Head of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown to advantage on the 10-year chart for GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) below, they were destined to retrace to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is what now has most investors very negative towards the sector again.
This time they don't have to—they can now rise out of this trough and proceed to break out upside from the entire pattern to embark on a mighty bull market. The fundamental reason is this: most investors have been taken in by the specious central bank talk about "normalizing interest rates" and scaling back their bloated balance sheets, but they haven't got a cat in hell's chance of doing this. Why? Because debt (and associated derivatives) has expanded to such gargantuan levels, that any attempt to bring it under control will send interest rates skyrocketing. Because of this stark reality, they are left with only one option—to inflate the debt away by monetizing it, which means inflation. Once investors grasp the inevitability of this—and that this process will soon get underway with a vengeance—gold and silver will soar. That is what the charts that we are going to look at today are telling us, and it means that we may never see the bargains in the Precious Metals sector that are now available ever again—or at least not for a very long time.
The latest COTs are telling us that gold and silver have hit bottom, or are very close to having done so, and that the time to buy the sector is now. Before proceeding to look at them we will start by looking at the latest 10-year chart for GDX, a reliable PM stocks proxy, to see where we are on the market clock, where we are in the PM stock price cycle.
Our 10-year arithmetic chart for GDX shows a clear large Head-and-Shoulders bottom forming, with the price now in the process of completing the Right Shoulder trough of the pattern. Obviously, most would be investors in this sector either don't know this pattern exists, or if they are aware of it, have written it off as a false H&S bottom, witness the rotten sentiment towards the sector, which is just what we want to see at this juncture. Indications that the pattern is genuine are provided by the strong volume on the rise out of the trough of the Head of the pattern, which we can expect to see again on the rise out of the Right Shoulder trough soon, and the outstandingly bullish COTs which we will soon look at.

Vinvestment of india
Avinash Lokhande
Mobile 92294622212

Gold prices start to rebound, weaker dollar helping

Silver Prices Rebound from Yearly Lows on Haven Demand, Bargain Hunting

Silver prices rose for a second consecutive day Wednesday, as the combination of haven demand and bargain-hunting boosted the market for precious metals.

Silver for September settlement rose by as much as 1.1% through the overnight session before paring gains later in the day. It was last seen trading at $15.78 a troy ounce at 7:27 a.m. ET, up 4 cents, or 0.2%, from the previous close.

With the gain, silver has rebounded more than 2% over the past two days as prices recovered from their lowest level in 15 months.

Gold prices booked narrow gains through the morning session and were on track for a third consecutive gain. The August futures contract added $1.60, or 0.2%, to $1,216.40 a troy ounce.

Gold’s premium over silver has declined sharply in recent sessions as the grey metal stabilized. As of Tuesday, one ounce of gold was worth 77.31 ounces of silver.

Precious metals received a boost on Tuesday after President Donald Trump’s eldest son released emails that seemed to suggest a connection between the Trump campaign and Russian officials during the 2016 election. The email chain was posted to Donald Trump Jr.’s Twitter account after The New York Times informed him of its intent to publicize the story.

U.S. stocks declined sharply after the news, but later recovered. However, speculation about Russian collusion may stoke fears of an investigation into the president’s campaign, which would trigger fresh bouts of volatility.

In currency news, the U.S. dollar pared losses against a basket of major peers. The dollar index (DXY) was last seen trading at 95.73, little changed from the previous close.

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Vinvestment of India   
Avinash Lokhande  
Mobile 9229462212